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Slowing trade, politics threaten Latin America's box shipping sector
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2018/11/29 09:14:58
BRAZIL and Argentina, the two nations that dominate trade on the east coast of South America, are expected to experience different fortunes in 2019 at a time when container operators are looking for signs that trade volumes will bounce back.
"Brazil is turning the corner and now looking up rather than down ?Brazilian box volume will grow one per cent in 2018 and in 2019 is expected to post 2.5 per cent growth," managing director Andrew Lorimer of regional shipping analyst Datamar told delegates at TOC Americas Container Supply Chain event in Panama, reported London's Loadstar.
However, he cautioned there were other factors to take into account, not least the election of right-wing former army officer Jair Bolsonaro as president.
"From a trade standpoint he has said that he wants to get closer to Europe and the US and is concerned about China ?it is currently Brazil's largest trading partner but he is said to be concerned that it is 'taking over Brazil,' so there is a potential cooling of relations there."
However, there are also more immediate matters for those in the country's fragile container supply chains, which have shown this year their vulnerability to disruption after a truckers' strike in protest at high operating costs ?including the cost of diesel ?crippled export flows.
"Between 50,000 and 75,000 TEU was lost due to the strike ?that's half the entire annual throughput of Paraguay.
"So there remains a question of what Petrobras' [Brazil's state-owned oil company] fuel price strategy was to be this year ?and will it cause further strikes?"
Furthermore, Mr Lorimer warned the country's meat exports also faced uncertainty as the EU, China and Russia have all embargoed Brazilian meats at different points in recent times.
"This represents around 500,000 TEU a year ?equalling almost 50 per cent of Argentine exports and bigger than Uruguay and Paraguay's full TEU trade together ?and so the question is what will happen in 2019," he said.
He also noted that Argentina is still struggling, although its container volumes have risen.
"The economy is expected to reach the bottom of the curve in the fourth quarter of this year and see a recession next year, with a 1.7 per cent GDP contraction," Mr Lorimer said.
However, TEU throughput at the country is anticipated to surpass one million TEU this year, representing growth of seven per cent.
"Brazil is turning the corner and now looking up rather than down ?Brazilian box volume will grow one per cent in 2018 and in 2019 is expected to post 2.5 per cent growth," managing director Andrew Lorimer of regional shipping analyst Datamar told delegates at TOC Americas Container Supply Chain event in Panama, reported London's Loadstar.
However, he cautioned there were other factors to take into account, not least the election of right-wing former army officer Jair Bolsonaro as president.
"From a trade standpoint he has said that he wants to get closer to Europe and the US and is concerned about China ?it is currently Brazil's largest trading partner but he is said to be concerned that it is 'taking over Brazil,' so there is a potential cooling of relations there."
However, there are also more immediate matters for those in the country's fragile container supply chains, which have shown this year their vulnerability to disruption after a truckers' strike in protest at high operating costs ?including the cost of diesel ?crippled export flows.
"Between 50,000 and 75,000 TEU was lost due to the strike ?that's half the entire annual throughput of Paraguay.
"So there remains a question of what Petrobras' [Brazil's state-owned oil company] fuel price strategy was to be this year ?and will it cause further strikes?"
Furthermore, Mr Lorimer warned the country's meat exports also faced uncertainty as the EU, China and Russia have all embargoed Brazilian meats at different points in recent times.
"This represents around 500,000 TEU a year ?equalling almost 50 per cent of Argentine exports and bigger than Uruguay and Paraguay's full TEU trade together ?and so the question is what will happen in 2019," he said.
He also noted that Argentina is still struggling, although its container volumes have risen.
"The economy is expected to reach the bottom of the curve in the fourth quarter of this year and see a recession next year, with a 1.7 per cent GDP contraction," Mr Lorimer said.
However, TEU throughput at the country is anticipated to surpass one million TEU this year, representing growth of seven per cent.