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Asia-US trade to grow 6.8pc despite high tariffs: Drewry economist
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2018/04/10 14:46:23
THE Port of Long Beach's 14th annual Pulse of the Ports Peak Season Forecast, drew 500 delegates to ponder the threat of a trade war that could halt strong growth in cargo flow between the US and Asia.
London's Drewry Maritime economist Mario Moreno predicted Asia-US trade will grow 6.8 per cent in 2018, the fastest pace in more than half-a-dozen years, also estimating that American GDP would grow 2.8 per cent.
While US President Donald Trump and China have proposed higher tariffs, an all-out trade war between China and the United States appears unlikely, Mr Moreno said.
"Both nations have a lot to lose," he said. "Consumer prices would certainly go up here in the US, and the Chinese government would certainly retaliate by imposing tariffs of their own."
US-China trade accounts for more than two-thirds of imports and almost one-third of exports at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.
"These are challenging but exciting times," said Harbour Commission president Lou Anne Bynum. "We believe we're in a good place for continued growth, but we know that there's going to be game changers coming our way. The purpose of this event is to help us identify, anticipate and answer these challenges."
Panelists included Steve Gonzales, vice president, Plastic Express; Daniel Gardner, vice president, Lakeshore Learning Materials; Lawrence Burns, vice president, Hyundai America Shipping Agency; Anthony Otto, president, Long Beach Container Terminal; Beth Whited, vice president, Union Pacific Railroad; Ken Kellaway, CEO, RoadOne Intermodal Logistics and Larry Gross, president, Gross Transportation Consulting.
Said Port of Long Beach executive director Mario Cordero: "I know of no other gathering like this one in our industry, and we are proud to host it. This forum gives us the opportunity to step back and take a look at our industry's issues from all angles."
London's Drewry Maritime economist Mario Moreno predicted Asia-US trade will grow 6.8 per cent in 2018, the fastest pace in more than half-a-dozen years, also estimating that American GDP would grow 2.8 per cent.
While US President Donald Trump and China have proposed higher tariffs, an all-out trade war between China and the United States appears unlikely, Mr Moreno said.
"Both nations have a lot to lose," he said. "Consumer prices would certainly go up here in the US, and the Chinese government would certainly retaliate by imposing tariffs of their own."
US-China trade accounts for more than two-thirds of imports and almost one-third of exports at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.
"These are challenging but exciting times," said Harbour Commission president Lou Anne Bynum. "We believe we're in a good place for continued growth, but we know that there's going to be game changers coming our way. The purpose of this event is to help us identify, anticipate and answer these challenges."
Panelists included Steve Gonzales, vice president, Plastic Express; Daniel Gardner, vice president, Lakeshore Learning Materials; Lawrence Burns, vice president, Hyundai America Shipping Agency; Anthony Otto, president, Long Beach Container Terminal; Beth Whited, vice president, Union Pacific Railroad; Ken Kellaway, CEO, RoadOne Intermodal Logistics and Larry Gross, president, Gross Transportation Consulting.
Said Port of Long Beach executive director Mario Cordero: "I know of no other gathering like this one in our industry, and we are proud to host it. This forum gives us the opportunity to step back and take a look at our industry's issues from all angles."