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Russian-led bank: China-EU intermodal to grow 71.7pc within 2 years
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2018/04/19 15:37:34
CONTAINER rail traffic between China and Europe will grow 71.7 per cent to 225,000 FEU from 2017 to 2020, having already grown from 7,000 FEU in 2010 to 131,000 today.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) study "Silk Road Transport Corridors Report of April 12 says container traffic spanning the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) may even double.
The EDB is a regional development bank established by the Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006. The Bank currently has six member states, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
There has already been a sharp increase in intermodal traffic between China and the EU, transiting via EEU countries, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, said the bank report.
Eighty per cent of deliveries are still made by sea. The growth of transit container traffic through the EEU depends on the development of trade between China and the EU, reports London's bne Intelinews.
The EDB report said EEU countries will need to expand their transport infrastructure and remove a number of barriers if growth of overland container traffic is to continue.
The expansion would be dependent on freight rates, which currently average at US$5,500 per FEU.
"Subsidy-driven reduction of China-Europe railway container freight rates by 30-50 per cent, has resulted in a 19-fold increase of container traffic," the report said.
Current rates encourage further growth of container traffic to 500,000 FEU in 2030, according to the report.
Growth rates are expected to decline after 2030 if not supported by lower rates as well as "investments in the "debottlenecking of the transport and logistics infrastructure" and "and international coordination of transport policies at the level of Greater Eurasia".
The EDB's most optimistic scenario sees aggregate container traffic along the route growing to 1.3 million TEU "in the long term".
Projections are in line with China's Belt and Road initiative, which seeks to turn much of the EEU into a transit hub for Chinese goods exported to Europe, said the bank study.
The EEU came into being in 2015 on the basis of a customs union created in 2010 and originally included Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus among its members - Armenia became a member of the free-trade bloc in January 2015, while Kyrgyzstan joined in August 2015.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) study "Silk Road Transport Corridors Report of April 12 says container traffic spanning the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) may even double.
The EDB is a regional development bank established by the Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006. The Bank currently has six member states, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
There has already been a sharp increase in intermodal traffic between China and the EU, transiting via EEU countries, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, said the bank report.
Eighty per cent of deliveries are still made by sea. The growth of transit container traffic through the EEU depends on the development of trade between China and the EU, reports London's bne Intelinews.
The EDB report said EEU countries will need to expand their transport infrastructure and remove a number of barriers if growth of overland container traffic is to continue.
The expansion would be dependent on freight rates, which currently average at US$5,500 per FEU.
"Subsidy-driven reduction of China-Europe railway container freight rates by 30-50 per cent, has resulted in a 19-fold increase of container traffic," the report said.
Current rates encourage further growth of container traffic to 500,000 FEU in 2030, according to the report.
Growth rates are expected to decline after 2030 if not supported by lower rates as well as "investments in the "debottlenecking of the transport and logistics infrastructure" and "and international coordination of transport policies at the level of Greater Eurasia".
The EDB's most optimistic scenario sees aggregate container traffic along the route growing to 1.3 million TEU "in the long term".
Projections are in line with China's Belt and Road initiative, which seeks to turn much of the EEU into a transit hub for Chinese goods exported to Europe, said the bank study.
The EEU came into being in 2015 on the basis of a customs union created in 2010 and originally included Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus among its members - Armenia became a member of the free-trade bloc in January 2015, while Kyrgyzstan joined in August 2015.