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China, North American trade deals cut risks of recession, says Fed
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2020/02/25 11:36:14
THE Maersk Group lost US$61 million in the fourth quarter of 2019, leading to an overall net loss of $44 million last year. Top line revenue from operations was down slightly on the previous year, at $38.9 billion, with the contribution from ocean unchanged at $28.4 billion, reported London's Loadstar. Liner liftings remained flat at 26.6 million TEU, and its average rate per TEU was unchanged at $940, despite bringing in IMO2020 surcharges in Q4. Chief executive Soren Skou warned analysts that the first-quarter 2020 results would be "significantly impacted" by the coronavirus outbreak. With 50 sailings from China cancelled, Mr Skou said earnings in February would be "really, really weak," and that even if production and intermodal recovered quickly, March would be "difficult." Nevertheless, Mr Skou said there could be a "V-shaped recovery" from April onwards when the market would see a significant surge in demand from the backlog of pent-up orders. "If we end up with a V-shaped recovery then we could see an overshooting in the later part of Q2," said Mr Skou. If necessary, he said, Maersk would deploy extra sailings, sourced from the charter market, to cater for the additional demand. Mr Skou also spoke of the challenge of IMO2020 and recovering the extra costs of having to use low sulphur fuel from shippers. For the carrier's spot cargo, which now represents half of its liftings, Mr Skou said surcharges had been successfully implemented. For contracts, Maersk is halfway through its negotiations and Mr Skou said it was a case of "so far, so good" - but he did have some concerns about the remaining contract negotiations, coming in a "weak environment." In Maersk's terminals and towage segment, revenue rose by 3.2 per cent to $3.9 billion, with turnover from its gateway terminals up 4.1 per cent to $3.2 billion. However, logistics and services saw revenue drop to $6 billion, down from $6.1 billion the previous year, as the "extraordinary" volumes of fourth quarter 2018 gained from the front-loading of cargo to beat US tariffs on Chinese goods, were not repeated. Maersk has also announced the $545 million acquisition of US-based warehouse distribution and logistics firm Performance Team which it said formed a "strategic component towards becoming a global integrator." Maersk said it expected an ebitda of $5.5 billion this year, before restructuring and integration costs, but warned that the 2020 outlook was "subject to significant uncertainties," particularly if the coronavirus outbreak was not brought under control worldwide. |
GERMAN container shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd improved its year-on-year earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) by 80 per cent to EUR811 million (US$908 million). Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) rose to EUR1.98 billion ($2.22 billion), up from EUR1.14 billion in 2018. The 2019 results include effects from the first-time application of the IFRS 16 accounting standard, which amount to EUR31 million for Ebit and EUR467 million for Ebitda. Both Ebitda and Ebit in the fourth quarter of 2019 also were above prior-year levels. Ebitda in Q4 2019 was EUR475 million compared to EUR327 million in 2018. Ebit in Q4 2019 was EUR169 million compared to EUR144 million in the same period in 2018. Revenues rose in the 2019 financial year by nine per cent year on year to EUR12.6 billion. The carrier attributed this to an improved average freight rate of $1,072 per TEU, a 2.6 per cent increase year on year "due to a stronger focus on more profitable trade lanes and active revenue management." "In addition, a 1.4 per cent year-on-year increase in transport volumes to 12 million TEU and a stronger US dollar exchange rate against the euro also made a positive contribution to revenues," the company said in the earnings release. Lower expenses for the handling and inland transport of containers as well as a slightly lower average bunker consumption price of $416 per tonne, compared to $421 per tonne in 2018, had a positive effect on transport expenses, which increased to EUR9.7 billion in 2019 from EUR9.6 billion in 2018, Hapag-Lloyd said. The carrier has a fleet of 231 containerships with a combined capacity of 2.6 million TEU. The company has 13,000 employees and 392 offices in 129 countries. |
THE Northwest Seaport Alliance saw its total container volume for January fall by 19 per cent year on year to 260,000 TEU, with imports down by 21 per cent, and exports falling by 20 per cent. Domestic container volumes in January decreased by 8.5 per cent compared to January 2019. Alaska's year-to-date volumes were down 13 per cent, while Hawaii's year-to-date volumes rose by the same percentage amount. Hawaii volumes benefited from an extra vessel call in January, reported Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive. In the non-containerised cargo segment, breakbulk volumes dropped by 11 per cent, and auto volumes plunged by 30 per cent year on year, falling to 10,500 units. The NWSA said in a statement that it continues to monitor shipping developments related to the coronavirus outbreak, and like other stakeholders, it predicts negative impacts worldwide - including the Seattle and Tacoma gateway to the American market. According to Alphaliner, the coronavirus outbreak has led to the cancellation of half of all transoceanic box ship sailings out of China since late January, removing 1.7 million TEU of capacity. The negative impact of those blanked sailings will start to surface in the February numbers of US west coast seaports. |
AMERICA's China trade deal, plus the free trade pact with Mexico and Canada has "helped reduce downside risks and buoys business sentiment," said the US Federal Reserve minutes from the January 28-29 policy meeting. Fed officials said the risk of a US recession in the next year has "fallen notably", according to the minutes, reported Agence France-Presse. The US central bankers were "cautiously optimistic" the easing of tensions would "boost business confidence or raise export demand which would help strengthen or at least stabilise business investment". But uncertainty over trade policy "is likely to remain elevated, with the possibility remaining of the emergence of new tensions as well as the re-escalation of existing tensions," according to the minutes, US central bankers also noted that the China deal "would still leave a large portion of the tariffs in place and that many firms had already been making production and supply chain adjustments". Trade confrontations have included tariffs on steel and aluminum, on top of hundreds of products from China, drawing retaliation against US products and fuelling a decline in American manufacturing last year. With the China deal, Washington cancelled a damaging round of new US tariffs on US$160 billion in imports that were due to start in mid-December, and promised to slash in half the 15 per cent tariffs on $120 billion of consumer goods like clothing imposed September 1. But the average US tariff on China over the course of the trade war surged from three per cent at the beginning of 2018 to more than 19 per cent, according to economists. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned trade conflicts and tariffs cut eight-tenths off world growth, and said the truce with China could "reduce the drag" by 0.2 per cent. The US central bank cut the benchmark lending rates three times last year in an effort to buoy the economy as it was shaken by US multi-front trade wars. |