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Scrubber installations to be scrapped as oil price falls off cliff
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2020/04/01 14:14:07
FINNISH technology group Wartsila says container and dry bulk ship owners are cancelling scrubber retrofits and installations in a move designed to cut costs. Alphatanker predicts a "flood of cancellations" as cost cutting and the erosion of marine fuel oil premiums render the sulphur abatement technology redundant.
The price of 0.5 per cent very low sulphur fuel oil now used by some 70 per cent of the international global fleet dived by 278 per cent in Singapore since the start of this year when it was as high as US$653.75 per tonne, according assessments compiled by price reporting agency Argus Media, reported London's Lloyd's List.
"Persistent low marine fuel prices will hit the fortunes of shipowners who have invested heavily to have their vessels equipped with scrubbers," said Alphatanker, a research division of Paris-based brokers BRS.
The difference in price between compliant very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and 3.5 per cent high sulphur fuel oil used by vessels with scrubbers has shrunk to $50 per tonne, from $400 per tonne earlier this year, according to Alphatanker.
That has reduced the earnings premium for scrubber-fitted vessels and extended the payback time for the $2.5 million average investment to four years rather than four months for the largest vessels that have retrofitted the technology. Payback time will be even longer for smaller vessels, given the economies of scale.
"The question is now rightly being raised over whether scrubber installations will be cancelled," Alphatanker said in its weekly report. "Installations due to be carried out in Chinese yards were already being delayed in the wake of Covid-19 and now following stellar returns for tankers, some owners are reportedly delaying or even, where possible, cancelling installations.
"Reports suggest that owners of bulkers or liners struggling amid the global downturn are also cancelling scrubbers as they strive to cut costs. We fear that this is just the tip of the iceberg and as the global recession intensifies during the second quarter, this drip of cancellations could turn into a flood."
Some 2,753 vessels totalling 328.7 million deadweight tonnage (dwt) were trading and had scrubbers installed, according to the Lloyd's List Intelligence database at the start of January.
A further 580 newbuildings were to have scrubbers fitted. Some 16.4 per cent of crude tankers, including one in five very large crude carriers, and 12.7 per cent of containerships have the technology installed. Dry bulk scrubber penetration is at 12 per cent.
The price of 0.5 per cent very low sulphur fuel oil now used by some 70 per cent of the international global fleet dived by 278 per cent in Singapore since the start of this year when it was as high as US$653.75 per tonne, according assessments compiled by price reporting agency Argus Media, reported London's Lloyd's List.
"Persistent low marine fuel prices will hit the fortunes of shipowners who have invested heavily to have their vessels equipped with scrubbers," said Alphatanker, a research division of Paris-based brokers BRS.
The difference in price between compliant very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and 3.5 per cent high sulphur fuel oil used by vessels with scrubbers has shrunk to $50 per tonne, from $400 per tonne earlier this year, according to Alphatanker.
That has reduced the earnings premium for scrubber-fitted vessels and extended the payback time for the $2.5 million average investment to four years rather than four months for the largest vessels that have retrofitted the technology. Payback time will be even longer for smaller vessels, given the economies of scale.
"The question is now rightly being raised over whether scrubber installations will be cancelled," Alphatanker said in its weekly report. "Installations due to be carried out in Chinese yards were already being delayed in the wake of Covid-19 and now following stellar returns for tankers, some owners are reportedly delaying or even, where possible, cancelling installations.
"Reports suggest that owners of bulkers or liners struggling amid the global downturn are also cancelling scrubbers as they strive to cut costs. We fear that this is just the tip of the iceberg and as the global recession intensifies during the second quarter, this drip of cancellations could turn into a flood."
Some 2,753 vessels totalling 328.7 million deadweight tonnage (dwt) were trading and had scrubbers installed, according to the Lloyd's List Intelligence database at the start of January.
A further 580 newbuildings were to have scrubbers fitted. Some 16.4 per cent of crude tankers, including one in five very large crude carriers, and 12.7 per cent of containerships have the technology installed. Dry bulk scrubber penetration is at 12 per cent.