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Global Port Tracker sees US import decline, expects poor year ahead
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2020/04/17 09:38:00
IMPORTS at major US retail container ports dropped are expected to drop to their lowest level in five years in March, and imports are projected to remain significantly below normal levels through early summer as the coronavirus pandemic continues, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
"Even as factories in China have begun to get back to work, we are seeing far fewer imports coming into the United States than previously expected," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold said.
"Many stores are closed, and consumer demand has been impacted with millions of Americans out of work. However, there are still many essential items that are badly needed and because of store closures cargo may sit longer than usual and cause other supply chain impacts."
Said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett: "The COVID-19 pandemic is unraveling the economy nationally and globally as most of the world moves toward a lockdown that entails the closure of significant portions of both the service and manufacturing industries."
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.51 million TEU in February, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 17 per cent from January and down 6.8 per cent year on year.
February numbers are normally lower than January because of annual factory shutdowns in China for Lunar New Year celebrations. But the shutdowns lasted longer than usual and continued into March because of the coronavirus outbreak.
While actual numbers for March are not yet available, estimates show that imports plunged to 1.27 million TEU, down 21.3 per cent year on year and the lowest level seen since 1.21 million TEU in February 2015 during a labour dispute that caused slowdowns at West Coast ports that winter.
April is forecast at 1.44 million TEU, down 17.6 per cent year on year; May at 1.48 million TEU, down 20.1 per cent; June at 1.41 million TEU, down 21.4 per cent; July at 1.61 million TEU, down 18.2 per cent and August at 1.72 million TEU, down 12.5 per cent.
Before the coronavirus began to have an effect on imports, February through May had been forecast at a total of 6.9 million TEU but is now expected to total 5.7 million TEU, a drop of 17.3 per cent.
Imports during 2019 totaled 21.6 million TEU, a 0.8 per cent decrease from 2018 amid the trade war with China but still the second-highest year on record.
"Even as factories in China have begun to get back to work, we are seeing far fewer imports coming into the United States than previously expected," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold said.
"Many stores are closed, and consumer demand has been impacted with millions of Americans out of work. However, there are still many essential items that are badly needed and because of store closures cargo may sit longer than usual and cause other supply chain impacts."
Said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett: "The COVID-19 pandemic is unraveling the economy nationally and globally as most of the world moves toward a lockdown that entails the closure of significant portions of both the service and manufacturing industries."
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.51 million TEU in February, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 17 per cent from January and down 6.8 per cent year on year.
February numbers are normally lower than January because of annual factory shutdowns in China for Lunar New Year celebrations. But the shutdowns lasted longer than usual and continued into March because of the coronavirus outbreak.
While actual numbers for March are not yet available, estimates show that imports plunged to 1.27 million TEU, down 21.3 per cent year on year and the lowest level seen since 1.21 million TEU in February 2015 during a labour dispute that caused slowdowns at West Coast ports that winter.
April is forecast at 1.44 million TEU, down 17.6 per cent year on year; May at 1.48 million TEU, down 20.1 per cent; June at 1.41 million TEU, down 21.4 per cent; July at 1.61 million TEU, down 18.2 per cent and August at 1.72 million TEU, down 12.5 per cent.
Before the coronavirus began to have an effect on imports, February through May had been forecast at a total of 6.9 million TEU but is now expected to total 5.7 million TEU, a drop of 17.3 per cent.
Imports during 2019 totaled 21.6 million TEU, a 0.8 per cent decrease from 2018 amid the trade war with China but still the second-highest year on record.