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Industry shows capacity discipline in face of virus: Sea-Intelligence
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2020/04/25 09:48:55
A HIGH degree of capacity management discipline has been displayed by ocean carriers during the coronavirus pandemic, says Copenhagen-based Sea-Intelligence.
"We are now at a point where 435 sailings are now cancelled on various deep-sea trades, and this in itself indicates a demand decline of seven million TEU in 2020," said the analyst note.
"This forceful response to the market downturn has thus far served as a strong underpinning for the freight rates though. Seen over the past six weeks, the China Containerised Freight Index (CCFI) contract rate index is 11 per cent higher than at the same period last year - despite the drop in both demand and oil prices. The decline in the overall index since Chinese New Year can be shown to be in line with normal seasonality.
"However, it can also be seen that the approach to the blank sailings differs between alliances. The pattern is that 2M and THE Alliance have chosen an approach where they announce blank sailings ranging quite far into the future - typically to the end of Q2 - and then supplement these with a few additional blank sailings tactically as the situation evolves," said the note.
Given how the pandemic is impacting the economy it should be expected that we will see more blank sailings emerge from Ocean Alliance in Q2.
"We are now at a point where 435 sailings are now cancelled on various deep-sea trades, and this in itself indicates a demand decline of seven million TEU in 2020," said the analyst note.
"This forceful response to the market downturn has thus far served as a strong underpinning for the freight rates though. Seen over the past six weeks, the China Containerised Freight Index (CCFI) contract rate index is 11 per cent higher than at the same period last year - despite the drop in both demand and oil prices. The decline in the overall index since Chinese New Year can be shown to be in line with normal seasonality.
"However, it can also be seen that the approach to the blank sailings differs between alliances. The pattern is that 2M and THE Alliance have chosen an approach where they announce blank sailings ranging quite far into the future - typically to the end of Q2 - and then supplement these with a few additional blank sailings tactically as the situation evolves," said the note.
Given how the pandemic is impacting the economy it should be expected that we will see more blank sailings emerge from Ocean Alliance in Q2.