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Box shipping heading towards harder fall than in 2009 financial crisis
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2020/04/07 16:38:13
UK-BASED consultancy Maritime Strategies International (MSI) warns that "there seems little doubt that containerised trade will shrink in 2020, with near-term rates of decline potentially approximating - or even exceeding - those seen during the financial crisis."
In the mainline east-west trades (transpacific, Asia-Europe), MSI sees "extraordinary downward pressure given a looming collapse in consumer spending in Europe and increasingly, North America." It cited "near-unprecedented headwinds" for European imports, with the transpacific to face the same shock as the Asia-Europe lane, but with a lag.
"While liftings data from March should remain reasonably positive, thereafter it will become a question of 'how bad can it get'." MSI believes the full-year 2020 slump won't be as severe as 2009's but that the second quarter of 2020 could match financial-crisis-era lows, reported American Shipper.
The consultancy projects that the total volume in March-May will decrease by 17.8 per cent year on year on the Asia-Europe route, 15 per cent on the trans-Pacific (US west coast) route and 13 per cent on the trans-Pacific (US east coast) route.
"No trade will escape the impact of the COVID-19 global recession," stressed MSI, which noted that non-mainline trades are highly exposed due to capital flight from emerging markets, the surge in the value of the US dollar and sliding commodity prices.
"Regional trades will come under severe pressure, owing to economic contraction, disrupted supply chains and reduced transshipment cargoes," it added.
MSI projects that total volume in March-May will fall 12 per cent year on year on the Asia-Middle East-India route, 10 per cent on the Asia-Latin America and trans-Atlantic westbound lanes, eight per cent intra-Europe and five per cent intra-Asia.
The consultancy estimates that May spot rates in the Asia-Europe trade will decline 36 per cent versus February and trans-Pacific rates will fall 17 per cent.
While insolvency risk was not addressed in the new MSI report, it has been cited by others, including Alix Partners and Stifel shipping analyst Ben Nolan.
In a new report, Mr Nolan warned: "If the coronavirus drives the global economy into serious recession or depression?companies at risk could potentially include privately held MSC [Mediterranean Shipping Co], which is the second largest liner company with 16 per cent market share and also a very large cruise operation.
"Similarly, number-four [carrier] CMA CGM with 11 per cent market share has debt trading at 72 cents on the dollar and is rated Caa1 by Moody's," said Mr Nolan, adding that "another name on the risk list is number-eight Yang Ming, which has seen its market capitalisation deteriorate to just US$375 million.
"Ultimately, this could end up blowing over without serious consequence, but on the other hand, when Hanjin became insolvent several years ago, it was chaos for the industry," Mr Nolan added.
In the mainline east-west trades (transpacific, Asia-Europe), MSI sees "extraordinary downward pressure given a looming collapse in consumer spending in Europe and increasingly, North America." It cited "near-unprecedented headwinds" for European imports, with the transpacific to face the same shock as the Asia-Europe lane, but with a lag.
"While liftings data from March should remain reasonably positive, thereafter it will become a question of 'how bad can it get'." MSI believes the full-year 2020 slump won't be as severe as 2009's but that the second quarter of 2020 could match financial-crisis-era lows, reported American Shipper.
The consultancy projects that the total volume in March-May will decrease by 17.8 per cent year on year on the Asia-Europe route, 15 per cent on the trans-Pacific (US west coast) route and 13 per cent on the trans-Pacific (US east coast) route.
"No trade will escape the impact of the COVID-19 global recession," stressed MSI, which noted that non-mainline trades are highly exposed due to capital flight from emerging markets, the surge in the value of the US dollar and sliding commodity prices.
"Regional trades will come under severe pressure, owing to economic contraction, disrupted supply chains and reduced transshipment cargoes," it added.
MSI projects that total volume in March-May will fall 12 per cent year on year on the Asia-Middle East-India route, 10 per cent on the Asia-Latin America and trans-Atlantic westbound lanes, eight per cent intra-Europe and five per cent intra-Asia.
The consultancy estimates that May spot rates in the Asia-Europe trade will decline 36 per cent versus February and trans-Pacific rates will fall 17 per cent.
While insolvency risk was not addressed in the new MSI report, it has been cited by others, including Alix Partners and Stifel shipping analyst Ben Nolan.
In a new report, Mr Nolan warned: "If the coronavirus drives the global economy into serious recession or depression?companies at risk could potentially include privately held MSC [Mediterranean Shipping Co], which is the second largest liner company with 16 per cent market share and also a very large cruise operation.
"Similarly, number-four [carrier] CMA CGM with 11 per cent market share has debt trading at 72 cents on the dollar and is rated Caa1 by Moody's," said Mr Nolan, adding that "another name on the risk list is number-eight Yang Ming, which has seen its market capitalisation deteriorate to just US$375 million.
"Ultimately, this could end up blowing over without serious consequence, but on the other hand, when Hanjin became insolvent several years ago, it was chaos for the industry," Mr Nolan added.