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    Biden clings to Trump's anti-China policy to retain the one voting bloc he fears losing next November

    来源:Shipping News Headlines    编辑:编辑部    发布:2021/12/27 14:34:45

    Despite the restoration of the Deep State power in Washington, the radicalised Biden administration dare not reverse the anti-China policy they inherited from former President Donald Trump lest they lose support from old style, largely male, Democratic voters with traditional values - values no longer shared today's party leadership.

    The Democratic leadership plans to flood America with illegals from across the Mexican border and make them reliable Democratic voters in time for the November 2022 mid-term elections, appears to be working well. Printing money to flood the economy with an extra US$6 trillion in Covid crisis spending should keep GDP buoyant for a time.

    But the big fear is the loss of traditional white male Democratic voter, who agrees with getting tough with China as trade cheats is the right course, especially after Beijing has been persecuting religions, threatens Taiwan, seizes the Spratly Islands, runs concentration camps, has punch-ups with India, conducts Big Brother surveillance as well breaking its agreement to leave Hong Kong alone until 2047.

    Keeping those traditional Democratic voters in the fold is necessary to ensure deep state victory in the mid-term elections, especially if voter fraud audits in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania turn up evidence that can win enough social media coverage to make the ever weakening mainstream media's Pravda-like defences of the administration meaningless.

    Thus, the radical Marxist, post-modernist programme, embraced by the media, academic, bureaucratic complex for years, but only recently deployed by the state with its questionable electoral practices, (ballot harvesting, mail-in ballots) coercive social control under health and safety regulations, critical race theory in schools, enforced sexual ambiguity, cancel culture, big tech censorship, rigged congressional hearings and partisan criminal prosecutions. All these efforts may come to naught if the traditional white male deserts the Democratic Party and tips the scales towards a Republican victory.

    Thus, an anti-China policy is the only thing that a plurality, if not a majority, of Americans share. Given that the hatred of Trump has not erased this antipathy against China - which leaves the much talked about economic decoupling from China very much on the table. This in turn leaves the very serious question of what is to done about it for those who have made their lives in the Far East.

    Given that China and the United States feel overly dependent on each other, decoupling is likely to continue even if it’s a lower priority for the Biden administration. Decoupling is also likely to be a two-way street.

    Such questions are discussed by the Harvard Business Review and Hong Kong's China Economic Review.

    Says Harvard Business Review: "CEOs will have no choice but to confront the attendant challenges. Foreign companies must clarify why they are even in China and what their strategic intent is going forward. Inevitably, that will result in a major shakeout, as some companies hedge their bets and others double down. The latter, if they are in any of China’s targeted industries, will need such compelling value propositions that Chinese customers beat a path to their door despite the government’s goals."

    Said China Economic Review: "China risk is a real thing. Whatever the business activity, the fundamental factor is not market forces, but the position of the Centre. The Western approach of providing a regulatory framework and then letting greed, creativity and competition be the engines of growth does not make sense to Those in Command, or only for short periods in specific circumstances. No one, no company, no sector, can be allowed to think of itself arrogantly as being above this requirement. There is no sector, no economic driver that cannot be sacrificed to ensure the maintenance of control."

    There is broad agreement here, with the Harvard Business Review outlining specific responses that businesses might adapt.

    "Companies that are heavily dependent on China for their upstream activities may face difficulties independent of tariffs or labour supply. For example, Daikin, the leading Japanese air-conditioner maker, recognised that to grow it had to expand outside Japan, but to do that it would need to make more-affordable AC units," said the Harvard Business Review.

    In 2009, Daikin executives decided to move production to China. In the process, they gave their Chinese rival Gree Electric access to Daikin’s advanced inverter technology in exchange for being able to tap into Gree’s low-cost mass-market production capabilities. Daikin succeeded in producing price-competitive AC units in China and exported them to the rest of the world.

    In fact, it grew international sales to the point where they account for 80 per cent of its total revenue. 

    Then there are companies that import finished products to sell in China’s huge, wealthy markets, such as Italy's Danieli, the second-largest supplier of steelmaking equipment in the world. In 1990, China produced just eight per cent of the world’s steel. By 2000 that share had doubled, and by 2013 China was producing more steel than the rest of the world combined.

    "Virtually all the steel produced in China was made by Chinese companies. To capture such a large percentage of global steel production, the Chinese manufacturers needed steelmaking equipment. Danieli set out to win as much of that business as possible. In 2003 its global revenues stood at US$740 million. By 2010, they had more than quadrupled to about $4.1 billion, mostly from the sale and installation of products made in Italy to Chinese steel plants," said Harvard Business Review.

    "The Trump administration’s aggressive policy toward China was broadly popular, despite potential negative side effects. In the first 10 months of 2020 the exact phrase “decouple from China” or “decoupling from China” appeared in three times as many articles as in the previous three years combined," noted the review.

    But most business executives don’t want to decouple. "We spent 13 years getting into China. It’s impossible for us to just pull out.”

    The Biden administration is likely to take a less confrontational approach, and CEOs may hope that the issue will blow over. If decoupling were just a twist in US politics, it might. But for more than 15 years - spanning the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations - China has followed a strategy of reducing its dependence on foreign technology and capabilities.

    Moreover, it has projected that strategy forward another 15 years. Decoupling will play an important role in the future, with significant implications - except it may be China rather than the west that does the decoupling.

    Said China Economic Review: "Those in Command are determined to maintain absolute control over all elements of the system and society, regardless of the implications for growth, innovation and even investment. The hammering of tech firms, most notably Tencent, and the stringent controls on education-related companies, decimated market valuations of a wide range of China companies. 

    "Control, and acceptance by all players of the primacy of those in control, is the top priority. There is no sector, no economic driver that cannot be sacrificed to ensure the maintenance of control. The argument is that control underlies stability and stability is the precondition for prosperity, and that with prosperity comes steady growth. if it means that growth is slower than it would otherwise be, then so be it."

    Unless there is a change and the top, which is unlikely given that Xi Jinping serves as president without term limits, hopes that China might morph its way to a free market economy, democracy and rule of law, now appears to be the forlornest of forlorn hopes.

    Whatever the outcome of November's mid-term elections, the Biden administration is likely to ease up on its anti-China policy. If the Democrats win, there will be no further need to placate angry white men now that they have served their purpose Now leftists are free to pursue China-like Marxist practices that are close to their hearts anyway. And if they lose the House and Senate they will be in lame duck mode with little hope of winning the next presidential election.

    Rather like Hitler's last throw of the dice at the Battle of the Bulge, then as now, the bulge must become a breakthrough or all is lost. That is the Great Reset Democrats must control and carry to success.

    As for the China trade, much is in doubt. It seems fair to say that barring a change and the top, foreign business operations will be running the rapids hoping not to capsize in the turbulent waters that lie ahead.