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Ukraine war would impact sector as fuel prices soar: experts
来源：shippingazette 编辑：编辑部 发布：2022/01/28 08:38:19
OIL prices - already at historic highs - are expected to be the first impacts on international shipping if the Russians invade the Ukraine and military and civil sanctions are taken by western NATO forces, reports New York's FreightWaves.
"Oil prices will skyrocket in the short term because Russia is such a big producer and the oil markets are already quite tight," wrote London energy and ship brokers Poten & Partners.
JP Morgan cautioned that oil prices could rise as high as US$150 per barrel. One barrel of Brent crude was going for $2.10 this week.
The Ship & Bunker price for 0.5 per cent sulphur fuel known as very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) hit an all-time peak of $694.50 per ton. That was even higher than in January 2020 when the price of VLSFO was artificially inflated by the transition to low-sulphur fuel during implementation of the IMO 2020 fuel rule.
Prior to 2020, ships burned 3.5 per cent sulfur fuel known as high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO). According to Ship & Bunker historical data, the last time HSFO was as expensive as VLSFO is today was in May 2012, almost a decade ago.
Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas is a key reason why sanctions against Russian exports are viewed as unlikely.
Around 35-40 per cent of Europe¡¯s natural gas comes from Russia, including gas in pipelines through Ukraine. Germany obtains around 50 per cent of its natural gas from Russia. The new Nord Stream 2 pipeline connecting Russia and Germany has yet to be certified; its future flows have become a bargaining chip in the Ukraine crisis.
Military action in the Ukraine would increase the European spot price for liquefied natural gas (LNG), drawing more US export cargoes to Europe. Multiple media outlets have also reported that the US is in talks with LNG exporter Qatar about shifting more supply to Europe in the case of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
When Russia decreased pipeline flows to Europe in December, the European spot price for LNG jumped higher than the Asian LNG spot price, attracting US export cargoes to Europe that would have otherwise gone to Asia.
"Oil prices will skyrocket in the short term because Russia is such a big producer and the oil markets are already quite tight," wrote London energy and ship brokers Poten & Partners.
JP Morgan cautioned that oil prices could rise as high as US$150 per barrel. One barrel of Brent crude was going for $2.10 this week.
The Ship & Bunker price for 0.5 per cent sulphur fuel known as very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) hit an all-time peak of $694.50 per ton. That was even higher than in January 2020 when the price of VLSFO was artificially inflated by the transition to low-sulphur fuel during implementation of the IMO 2020 fuel rule.
Prior to 2020, ships burned 3.5 per cent sulfur fuel known as high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO). According to Ship & Bunker historical data, the last time HSFO was as expensive as VLSFO is today was in May 2012, almost a decade ago.
Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas is a key reason why sanctions against Russian exports are viewed as unlikely.
Around 35-40 per cent of Europe¡¯s natural gas comes from Russia, including gas in pipelines through Ukraine. Germany obtains around 50 per cent of its natural gas from Russia. The new Nord Stream 2 pipeline connecting Russia and Germany has yet to be certified; its future flows have become a bargaining chip in the Ukraine crisis.
Military action in the Ukraine would increase the European spot price for liquefied natural gas (LNG), drawing more US export cargoes to Europe. Multiple media outlets have also reported that the US is in talks with LNG exporter Qatar about shifting more supply to Europe in the case of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
When Russia decreased pipeline flows to Europe in December, the European spot price for LNG jumped higher than the Asian LNG spot price, attracting US export cargoes to Europe that would have otherwise gone to Asia.