Expert thinking is more optimistic about the Russian container trade on the Black Sea and beyond than it has been. Despite widespread condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the initial and very public Maersk divestment of its Novorossyisk's APM Terminals container port on the Black Sea east of the Crimea, there is reason to hope for better times.

As the Russians have allowed ships with grain unimpeded passage from Ukrainian ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi and Yuzhny under the UN sponsored Black Sea Grain Initiative, it is likely there will be no interference with Russian shipping from Novorossyisk, 950 miles south of Moscow with a consumer rich hinterland in between including Volgagrad (aka Stalingrad) as well at affluent areas of Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.

Such a scenario rests on the premise that the Ukrainians will not be able to dislodge the Russian Army from the Russian-speaking Donbas, Donetsk and Crimea. It's even money that the eastern region will remain in Russian hands and a new border of Ukraine will be redrawn and settled over time.

Making such a bet is Russian owned Ruscon (part of the Russian logistics giant Delo Group), which burst into the container shipping market after Delo acquired Maersk’s stake in port operator Global Port Investments in Russia.

Of the move, Odessa-based Informall BG, a consulting and private equity firm, said: "If we compare Russian Novorossiysk laden container turnover H1 2021 period with H1 2022, the volume drop is not dramatic as some could expect – it’s only  down 11.1 per cent."

Granted, Novorossiysk’s laden container volume is expected to drop 35 per cent in 2022, said Informall BG in an article in Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive, with the war ramping up in intensity at the time. Of course, no one anywhere is optimistic about container volume growth worldwide in 2023. With inflation rising, consumer spending falling, and talk of decoupling from China increasing, optimism is largely absent as people hunker down to get by as best they can in difficult times.

But two or three years from now things may look different for the Port of Novorossiysk. While Ukrainian troops have shown themselves willing to risk their lives and die defending their homeland, they are less willing to do the same to retake territory defended by Russian and local Russian-speaking forces, the latter defending their homes against Ukrainian who they consider as foreign invaders.

Along with global carrier MSC, other regional - and niche - scale carriers present in the Black Sea region have also benefited from the decreased activities of global shipping lines such as Maersk, Zim, Cosco, Evergreen, ONE, Yang Ming and OOCL.

Admiral, Arkas and Akkon shipping lines have increased their presence in the Russian port of Novorossiysk since the beginning of the war, mainly because of the larger shipping lines deciding to exit the Russian container market. European sanctions on Russian goods and services provided a further boost to the bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia as operators are largely Turkish and Russian shipping companies.

Although carriers in both Turkey and Russia are currently unable to fully compensate for all previously existing global liner services in Russia, the market conditions created opportunities for liner business growth.

Said Informall analyst Daniil Melnychenko: "While Russia explores alternative destinations willing to make up for the lost European market, there are liner operators ready to accommodate the demand despite international sanctions.

"The list of alternative Russian markets includes but is not limited to the countries of Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. India, Bangladesh and Pakistan also do not have well-established logistics connections with Russia."

Informall’s market study reveals that decreased activities of global shipping lines in the Russian container ports provided room for growth among domestic Russian shipping companies previously not extensively involved in international liner shipping operations.

Ruscon has priority access to the NUTEP container terminal in Novorossiysk, which is owned and operated by Delo Group. Having access to Delo Group’s logistics resources allowed Ruscon to quickly gain momentum in the port of Novorossiysk after global carriers reduced their volume.

Between January and June 2022, Ruscon has increased its container shipping volume via port of Novorossiysk by over 2,900 per cent, from a few hundred TEU per month to thousands, mainly owing to its new services from Russia to Turkey, India, Israel and China.

Said Informall CEO Vassiliy Vesselovski: “While some ‘globals’ have left the Russian container market, there is a real chance that the shortage of vessels capacity in Russian ports as well as the deficit of container equipment will be compensated via regional- and niche-scale carriers and Russian private-owned shipping companies that began to actively utilise small- and mid-size chartered container vessels.

"Geographical positioning of Russia allows them to diversify their cargo flows to those alternative countries, which prefer to not follow international sanctions,” said Mr Vesselovski.

If there ever was an example of finding a silver lining in the clouds of war this appears to be one. For the time being, trade through Odessa area ports will be restricted to whatever quantities and commodities until the UN-brokered grain shipping cartel. While that leaves those ports business east of the Crimea, free to conduct business with the semblance of normality, there will be little in the way of general cargo traffic there. Crimea ports are in the war zone and cannot be used except by stealth.