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Lars Jensen says box recovery could be delayed until 2024
来源：shippingazette 编辑：编辑部 发布：2023/01/28 15:33:36
BECAUSE consumer sentiment will take much longer to come back, container shipping recovery will not happen until 2024, according to Lars Jensen, principal at Copenhagen's Vespucci Maritime consultancy.
"The happy and optimistic scenario is that this is only an inventory correction. The global recession that we're in right now is short and shallow," he told the Propeller Club of Northern California.
"The Russian war ends, inflation gets under control, and consumers get happy and optimistic. If that is the case, then we will see the economy pick up over the summer" said Mr Jensen. There will be a surge of cargo during the normal peak season and the market will rectify.
"The pessimistic scenario is easier to swallow. The Russian war does not end anytime soon, it takes inflation a lot longer to get under control, and the current recession might be deeper and longer than we expect.
"In this case, it will take consumer sentiment a lot longer to come back. In which case, the boom that we get in cargo demand following the inventory correction will not happen until the first quarter of 2024," he said.
"The happy and optimistic scenario is that this is only an inventory correction. The global recession that we're in right now is short and shallow," he told the Propeller Club of Northern California.
"The Russian war ends, inflation gets under control, and consumers get happy and optimistic. If that is the case, then we will see the economy pick up over the summer" said Mr Jensen. There will be a surge of cargo during the normal peak season and the market will rectify.
"The pessimistic scenario is easier to swallow. The Russian war does not end anytime soon, it takes inflation a lot longer to get under control, and the current recession might be deeper and longer than we expect.
"In this case, it will take consumer sentiment a lot longer to come back. In which case, the boom that we get in cargo demand following the inventory correction will not happen until the first quarter of 2024," he said.