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US February imports expected to hit lowest level in 3yrs
来源：shippingazette 编辑：编辑部 发布：2023/02/13 14:12:53
US Import cargo volume at its major container ports is expected to drop to its lowest level in nearly three years during February, according to a new forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF).
The trade group for the nation's retailers is once again lowering its forecast for imports seeing a decline from its already lowered expectations and a significant decline over the surge levels experienced a year ago, reports Fort Lauderdale's The Maritime Executive.
The projection is now for a total of 8.9 million TEU during the first five months of the year versus last month's forecast of imports totaling 9.23 million TEU, or a further decline of 3.6 per cent versus last month's forecast.
The NRF's forecast for 8.9 million TEU is down 21 per cent from the record import volumes for the first five months of 2022. They lowered the projections for January by 6.8 percent and February by a further 3.7 percent.
The Global Port Tracker shows that since the beginning of the pandemic, only the 1.51 million TEU recorded in February 2020 and 1.37 million TEU in March 2020 have been lower than the projected 1.57 million TEU for February 2023.
"February is traditionally a slow month, but these are the lowest numbers we've seen in almost three years. Retailers are being cautious as they wait to see how the economy responds to efforts to bring inflation under control," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
"With the US economy slowing and consumers worried by rising interest rates and still-high inflation, retailers are importing less merchandise."
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.73 million TEU in December, down 2.6 per cent from November and down 17.1 per cent from December 2021. That brought 2022 to an annual total of 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 per cent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
The NRF is forecasting that monthly import volumes will remain below the comparable year-ago levels through at least the first six months of 2023.
June 2023 is the first month of the year forecast at 2 million TEU, which would be the first time imports are expected to be that high since October. At their peak, monthly volumes reach 2.4 million TEU in May 2022. For the first six months of 2023, the NRF projects volumes will be at 10.9 million TEU, down 19.4 percent from the first half of 2022.
The trade group for the nation's retailers is once again lowering its forecast for imports seeing a decline from its already lowered expectations and a significant decline over the surge levels experienced a year ago, reports Fort Lauderdale's The Maritime Executive.
The projection is now for a total of 8.9 million TEU during the first five months of the year versus last month's forecast of imports totaling 9.23 million TEU, or a further decline of 3.6 per cent versus last month's forecast.
The NRF's forecast for 8.9 million TEU is down 21 per cent from the record import volumes for the first five months of 2022. They lowered the projections for January by 6.8 percent and February by a further 3.7 percent.
The Global Port Tracker shows that since the beginning of the pandemic, only the 1.51 million TEU recorded in February 2020 and 1.37 million TEU in March 2020 have been lower than the projected 1.57 million TEU for February 2023.
"February is traditionally a slow month, but these are the lowest numbers we've seen in almost three years. Retailers are being cautious as they wait to see how the economy responds to efforts to bring inflation under control," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
"With the US economy slowing and consumers worried by rising interest rates and still-high inflation, retailers are importing less merchandise."
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.73 million TEU in December, down 2.6 per cent from November and down 17.1 per cent from December 2021. That brought 2022 to an annual total of 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 per cent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
The NRF is forecasting that monthly import volumes will remain below the comparable year-ago levels through at least the first six months of 2023.
June 2023 is the first month of the year forecast at 2 million TEU, which would be the first time imports are expected to be that high since October. At their peak, monthly volumes reach 2.4 million TEU in May 2022. For the first six months of 2023, the NRF projects volumes will be at 10.9 million TEU, down 19.4 percent from the first half of 2022.