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EU will get more Ukrainian grain while China will import from Oz
来源：shippingazette 编辑：编辑部 发布：2023/08/03 10:51:52
TERMINATION of Black Sea grain deal with Russia means that much Ukraine grain will end up in EU, while China will source more from Australia, reports Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.
After Russia suspended its participation in the Black Sea grain initiative, with effect from July 17, the future of Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea looks dark, said the report.
The suspension of vessel movement in the region will lead to a decline in shipping demand, particularly for the supramax and panamax vessels, said the report that acknowledges Drewry Maritime Research and the Black Sea Initiative Joint Coordination Centre as its sources.
The safe passage through the Black Sea not being available, Ukraine is likely to depend on alternative routes - through Romania's Constanta port and inland routes - for its exports. While the deal helped Ukraine export 16.8 million tonnes of wheat in the previous marketing year, 39 per cent of total wheat exported moved outside of the grain corridor, through eastern Europe, particularly Romania.
In 2022, Romania re-established rail links with Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova for transporting cargo. The construction of critical railway sections in Moldova which began in 2022, will increase the capacity and speed for Ukrainian products to reach the Port of Constanta.
In addition, they will also facilitate traffic heading to a group of smaller ports along the Danube, the main inland waterway route in Europe. The accumulated capacity of these smaller ports can partly ease exports from Ukraine and serve as an important transit centre.
Despite the possibility of these alternative routes providing some relief to Ukraine's exports, the overall impact could further hurt dry bulk shipping.
There could be severe congestion at Constanta, which has a storage capacity of two million tonnes; Romania is a major wheat exporter and is about to enter its export season. If Romania prioritises its domestic crop export, then Ukraine's exports could be delayed.
Even if Ukraine continues to export partly through these alternative routes, the rise in logistic costs will inevitably make trade uncompetitive; smaller vessels will be required for transporting grain to Europe through inland river routes.
Therefore, a shift in global trade patterns will continue. Ukraine's exports to Asia have dropped sharply, while the share to Europe has risen, compared to the pre-war levels. China has consistently imported higher volumes of wheat from Australia, replacing Ukraine, losing tonne-mile demand.
After Russia suspended its participation in the Black Sea grain initiative, with effect from July 17, the future of Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea looks dark, said the report.
The suspension of vessel movement in the region will lead to a decline in shipping demand, particularly for the supramax and panamax vessels, said the report that acknowledges Drewry Maritime Research and the Black Sea Initiative Joint Coordination Centre as its sources.
The safe passage through the Black Sea not being available, Ukraine is likely to depend on alternative routes - through Romania's Constanta port and inland routes - for its exports. While the deal helped Ukraine export 16.8 million tonnes of wheat in the previous marketing year, 39 per cent of total wheat exported moved outside of the grain corridor, through eastern Europe, particularly Romania.
In 2022, Romania re-established rail links with Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova for transporting cargo. The construction of critical railway sections in Moldova which began in 2022, will increase the capacity and speed for Ukrainian products to reach the Port of Constanta.
In addition, they will also facilitate traffic heading to a group of smaller ports along the Danube, the main inland waterway route in Europe. The accumulated capacity of these smaller ports can partly ease exports from Ukraine and serve as an important transit centre.
Despite the possibility of these alternative routes providing some relief to Ukraine's exports, the overall impact could further hurt dry bulk shipping.
There could be severe congestion at Constanta, which has a storage capacity of two million tonnes; Romania is a major wheat exporter and is about to enter its export season. If Romania prioritises its domestic crop export, then Ukraine's exports could be delayed.
Even if Ukraine continues to export partly through these alternative routes, the rise in logistic costs will inevitably make trade uncompetitive; smaller vessels will be required for transporting grain to Europe through inland river routes.
Therefore, a shift in global trade patterns will continue. Ukraine's exports to Asia have dropped sharply, while the share to Europe has risen, compared to the pre-war levels. China has consistently imported higher volumes of wheat from Australia, replacing Ukraine, losing tonne-mile demand.