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Europe mulls: Yes, Trump is a beastly boor, but is he right about China?
来源: 编辑:编辑部 发布:2018/09/09 11:28:47
Looking at what has been said about Sino-European trade relations in recent months, it seems that while no European wants to be as boorish and beastly as US President Donald Trump appears to be, yet they are singing his tune nonetheless.
It's like defeating insurgent ISIS in Syria. While all say how hateful the Russians are defending Syria's President Bashar Assad, US forces still worked with Moscow to drive out the enemy they all shared - the most dangerous terrorist group in the world.
In trade conflicts with China, Europeans tend to walk softly without a hint of a big stick because of lures of investment deals and closer cooperation banish such thoughts from their minds.
But this vegetarian approach, says Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, has not borne fruit.
Because there is no confrontation, "there is no bad cop next to the good cop and we need that,” he said.
On the other hand, “While confrontation with China is necessary, Trump’s way of doing it has too much collateral damage and does not deal with the issue in a rational way,” he said.
These days, it appears that Europe is waking up to the risks of that approach, and is looking at Chinese investments anew. A Bloomberg audit found that China has invested at least US$318 billion in Europe over the past decade, from critical infrastructure to high-tech companies - more than in the US over the same time.
Europe’s still tepid, but newly assertive attitude is mirrored by governments worldwide as they confront China’s global clout. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is leading the west in this attitudinal change, with the accent on that old Yankee principle of reciprocity.
For far too long, western powers reason, China has pleaded poverty, parading its third world status to excuse behaviour that would be unacceptable of among and from the 34 member states of the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development.
The UK and the Czech Republic were among those to stress that any curbs should be imposed at national level without recourse to the EU.
“There is a sea change of perception” toward China, said Francois Godemont, director of the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He cited a “wave of investments” for having fueled the shift, along with an inability of the EU and China to resolve their respective market difficulties. In addition, he said, an awareness of political change in China including the removal of term limits has “soured the mood".
All the same, the EU commission proposal “is already pretty much a compromise because it’s not legally binding,” Mr Godemont said.
Compared to President Trump's “America First” policy, Europe’s approach is tame. Trump railed against China’s programme to become the world leader in a slew of industries by 2025.
To be fair, China’s global ambitions, including a push to dominate artificial intelligence, are causing consternation in Berlin and Paris, which now pledges more strategic coordination on the issue.
Hungary is ready to debate investment screening so long as it doesn’t result in different standards among EU members, Gergely Gulyas, vice president and parliamentary leader of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has said.
“If we have a common China policy, we are ready to be part of it,” he said.
The European Council on Foreign Relations warns that without rigorous screening as imposed by the US, Japan and Australia, Europe risks becoming “the shop of last resort” for those seeking advanced technologies.
Italy is among those pushing for tighter screening “because we believe that trade must be fair and investment must be productive”, Italian European affairs minister Sandro Gozi. “We have to assess whether investment by non-EU countries aims to do business, to promote growth, to create jobs in Europe, or whether it’s just aimed to acquire and then take the know-how of our businesses away from Europe.”
The EU proposal would create a centralised database of past foreign investments in Europe and an alert mechanism for future ones, leaving the ultimate power of approving deals with individual governments. The EU Parliament’s international-trade committee, however, intends to vote on amendments that could give the bill more teeth. After that, the spotlight will shift to the deliberations among EU governments.
The Bulgarian economy minister has said the proposal “is one of our trade policy priorities”. The draft regulation doesn’t envisage obligatory screening, but rather “its purpose is to establish a mechanism for cooperation and coordination among member states” whereby countries applying screening should inform the others, it said.
More than anything Europe and all western states would like to see “structural changes” in the Chinese economy. This is not about buying more western goods. It is about allowing foreign companies to compete fairly in China. If that were to occur, that would deal with the trade deficit alone.
China has called on the EU to take a joint stand against US protectionism after Trump warned that he could impose another US$100 billion of extra tariffs on China’s imports.
“China and the EU should take a clear stance against protectionism, jointly preserve the rules-based multilateral trade order, and keep the global economy on a sound and sustainable track,” said Zhang Ming, the head of the Chinese mission to the EU.
“This is a joint responsibility of China and the EU. We must act together to make that happen,” Mr Zhang said.
The EU declined to respond directly to Beijing’s invitation, insisting only that trade conflicts should be resolved at the World Trade Organisation.
The bloc is “firm in the belief that free and fair trade is one of the most powerful engines for growth, supporting millions of jobs and contributing to prosperity,” said European Commission spokesman Daniel Rosario said.
Complicating matters, European leaders are largely in agreement with Trump that China fails to play fairly when it comes to international trade, not only about metal exports, but also market access for European companies and respecting intellectual property.
Many Europeans also rail against cash-flush Chinese tycoons who have snapped up European companies, sports clubs and airports, all while foreigners are barred from investing in equivalent industries in China.
But the EU is caught in a bind: It shares many of Washington’s grievances with Beijing’s trade practises, but is under a threat of protectionist measures ordered up by President Trump. But like Russia and the US in Syria, it took some time for each side to make a deal and discover they are the same side in demanding reciprocity from China - and a win-win outcome for all, China included.