The removal of the US "de minimis" exemption has led to a shift in global air cargo trade lanes, with manufacturers adopting a "US-plus one" strategy to diversify production and consumption markets, reported New York's Journal of Commerce.

Glyn Hughes, Director-General of The International Air Cargo Association (Tiaca), said carriers responded swiftly to changing demand by redeploying capacity. He noted the shift mirrors the earlier "China-plus one" model aimed at reducing supply chain risks.

The exemption removal on 2 May affected Chinese imports under US$800, reducing trans-Pacific e-commerce demand. Freighters previously serving this route were redirected to Europe, where platforms like Temu and Shein shifted their billion-dollar advertising budgets.

Niall van de Wouw of Xeneta said the shift was so effective that rates remained stable despite volume fluctuations. Trans-Pacific volumes fell while Europe-bound cargo surged, maintaining rate equilibrium.

Xeneta reported global air cargo spot rates fell 4 per cent year-on-year in September to US$2.54/kg. Shanghai-Europe rates held steady at US$4.20/kg, while Shanghai-Chicago rates dropped 9 per cent to US$5.10/kg.

Cargo Facts Consulting said the repeal of de minimis and the looming expiry of the US-China tariff truce in November have created uncertainty. Tactical redeployments of freighters continue to shape global capacity.

Hughes warned that tariff volatility could deter other industries from shipping to the US, citing risks of sudden 25 to 50 per cent duties. He said this could make US-bound freight uneconomic and risky.

Cargo Facts noted that e-commerce and time-sensitive goods are gaining air cargo share, while China-US electronics remain under pressure. The consultancy expects continued volatility through the peak season.