CMA CGM has reversed plans to resume three Asia-Europe westbound services through the Red Sea and Suez, citing the complex international context and opting to continue routing via the Cape of Good Hope, reports London's S&P Global.

The carrier said voyages on its FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX services would remain diverted around southern Africa, with the situation under regular review. The decision follows Maersk's announcement last week that its MECL service from India to the US East Coast would resume Suez sailings.

Analysts said carriers face high risks to crew and brand if attacks resume, despite Houthi rebels declaring in November that assaults had ended. Suez transits cut up to 10 days off Asia-Europe voyages, but a sudden release of capacity could drive rates lower.

Drewry's Simon Heaney told a webinar that hybrid routing would dominate this year, with carriers sending backhaul and lower-value cargo via the Suez while keeping head-haul voyages on the Cape route. He said this would drip feed capacity into the market and avoid a collapse in pricing.

HSBC analysts warned that overcapacity would depress rates regardless of how quickly Suez transits resume. They said spot freight rates could fall sharply and weigh on transpacific contract talks in April and May.

Ocean carriers have cautiously increased Suez transits in recent months. CMA CGM is routing India-US services via the canal, while Maersk will resume MECL sailings through the Red Sea. The Ocean Alliance has scheduled eastbound NEU4 and MED2 services via the Suez from January and February.

Shippers remain divided. Some refuse Suez voyages under corporate directives, while others say insurance costs are manageable. Drewry noted premiums have fallen to 0.2-0.3 per cent of hull value, down from one per cent during the height of Red Sea attacks.

Drewry expects a two-route schedule this year, reflecting carrier caution and shipper concerns. European retailers said contracts now include clauses allowing renegotiation if Suez transits resume. Drewry's Philip Damas added that shippers are seeking dual rates for Cape and Suez routings to ease future adjustments.