Shippers are expected to prioritise reliability over rates this year as congestion and infrastructure limits weigh on global supply chains, reports London's S&P Global.

Analysts said freight rates may moderate by a few hundred dollars per container, but systemic threats to service will push shippers to focus on certainty. Drewry's Chantal McRoberts told a Journal of Commerce webinar that reliability is now the top concern for beneficial cargo owners.

Ocean reliability from Asia to the US West Coast has ranged between 42 and 48 per cent since September, according to eeSea. Chronic congestion at Shanghai and Ningbo, where ships wait two to three days outside port, highlights the problem.

China accounted for 36 per cent of US imports in TEU last year, down from 40 per cent in 2024. Expansion of port capacity has slowed even as exports surged, leaving infrastructure unable to keep pace. Advisory founder Nils Roche said China is "lacking port capacity" despite its earlier investments.

China's exports grew strongly, with its trade surplus surpassing US$1 trillion in November. Its share of global exports rose from 33 to 37 per cent between 2023 and 2025. S&P Global Market Intelligence raised GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027, citing stronger export prospects.

Larger ships of 18,000 to 24,000 TEUs are adding pressure, with port performance data showing turnaround times well below pre-pandemic levels. Roche warned that even if Red Sea transits resume, bottlenecks will shift from ocean to land due to limited port capacity.

He added that shipping does not fully obey supply and demand laws, as infrastructure constraints limit the impact of new vessel supply. Analysts said shippers must temper expectations and plan around systemic risks rather than short-term rate changes.