Vietnam's exports surged to US$474 billion in 2025, up nearly $70 billion on the previous year, despite facing 20 per cent US tariffs and competition from China, reported Fort Lauderdale's Maritime Executive.

Analysts said Vietnam's competitiveness and the substitution of Chinese goods in the US market are driving growth. While some exports involve transshipped Chinese goods or components, studies suggest most gains reflect genuine trade relocation and domestic value addition.

Imports from China rose sharply by 30 per cent to $186 billion, fuelling speculation about reliance on Chinese inputs. However, experts noted that stronger Vietnamese domestic demand, up eight per cent in 2025, and the need for inputs for exports to non-US markets explain much of the increase.

Total imports grew 19 per cent, broadly in line with exports at 17 per cent, indicating Vietnam's domestic value-addition role remains intact. Imports from other countries rose more slowly, at 13 per cent, suggesting China's share is expanding at the expense of suppliers such as South Korea.

Broader benefits mirror those seen after the first US-China trade war. Manufacturing GDP grew 10 per cent, 265,000 industrial jobs were added, agricultural employment declined, and monthly wages rose six per cent. Foreign direct investment remained strong, with industrial upgrading evident in consumer electronics, which grew 21 per cent, and new projects in semiconductors and electric vehicles.

Much of the success reflects Vietnam's own reforms and global trade integration. Risks remain from potential US clampdowns on indirect Chinese exports, further tariffs, or a global downturn. For now, Vietnam appears to be winning the trade wars.