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HK traders optimistic about new market opportunities: DHL
来源： 编辑：编辑部 发布：2018/11/13 10:00:23
THE overall trade outlook for the fourth quarter 2018 was lower than the previous quarter, dragged down by concerns over the intensifying trade row trade between the US and China. That said, air traders remain optimistic due to the emergence of new markets creating potential opportunities in Asia Pacific, according to the DHL Hong Kong Air Trade Leading Index (DTI).
The most stable and positive segment for the quarter remains e-commerce, likely attributed to the lower value items not being subject to additional tariffs.
Other key findings of the quarterly DTI compiled by the Hong Kong Productivity Council and based on a survey of 600 Hong Kong companies engaged in in- or out-bound air trading is that the outlook for air exports is more cautiously conservative, compared to Q4 2017 owing to the decline in exports to many western markets, resulting in a score of 39.1, a full 7.4 points lower year on year.
While caution remains, traders expect that by relying less on China, exports will improve during what is a period of instability for traditional markets.
The picture for air imports is more positive, with traders posting only a moderate decline to 46.6 for Q4 2018, up 0.8 points during the same period last year.
Furthermore, key attributes remain stable as in the previous year amid downturns in sales volume, product variety and shipment urgency. Inbound sales orders from China and the Americas remain at the same level as in Q4 2017 but this is tempered by a decrease in outbound sales to these two major markets.
The survey was conducted as the United States imposed its new wave of trade tariffs on China in September. This prompted traders to give an overall score of 41.7, which is 6.1 points lower than in the third quarter. In fact, 66 per cent of air traders feel that global trade friction will affect local air trade.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
Hong Kong Productivity Council business management director Gordon Lo said, "The impact of the strained trade relations between China and the US on Hong Kong economy has started to surface. The overall index continued to drop in this quarter with significant retraction in the US and the European markets, though the impact has been less in Asia Pacific region."
Air traders envisage air trade in both the Americas and China may slow in the coming quarter, similar to figures from the same quarter two years ago. Happily, this is offset by expectations for markets in the rest of the world, which are at a record high of 55.
Other markets experiencing a temporary downturn are in Europe, a region which has decreased from 48 points in last quarter to 39 in Q4 2018. This is largely attributable to sluggish exports in the watches, clocks and jewellery segment.
The success story for the period under consideration is the rest of the world, which saw air traders' confidence soar by 16 points, from 39 in the previous quarter to 55 in Q4 2018. This has been caused by strengthening sales volume and product variety within the region.
Hong Kong's air trade industry generates income of HK$120 billion (US$15.324 billion) annually and employs 25,000 people in the territory.
The most stable and positive segment for the quarter remains e-commerce, likely attributed to the lower value items not being subject to additional tariffs.
Other key findings of the quarterly DTI compiled by the Hong Kong Productivity Council and based on a survey of 600 Hong Kong companies engaged in in- or out-bound air trading is that the outlook for air exports is more cautiously conservative, compared to Q4 2017 owing to the decline in exports to many western markets, resulting in a score of 39.1, a full 7.4 points lower year on year.
While caution remains, traders expect that by relying less on China, exports will improve during what is a period of instability for traditional markets.
The picture for air imports is more positive, with traders posting only a moderate decline to 46.6 for Q4 2018, up 0.8 points during the same period last year.
Furthermore, key attributes remain stable as in the previous year amid downturns in sales volume, product variety and shipment urgency. Inbound sales orders from China and the Americas remain at the same level as in Q4 2017 but this is tempered by a decrease in outbound sales to these two major markets.
The survey was conducted as the United States imposed its new wave of trade tariffs on China in September. This prompted traders to give an overall score of 41.7, which is 6.1 points lower than in the third quarter. In fact, 66 per cent of air traders feel that global trade friction will affect local air trade.
An index value above 50 indicates an overall positive outlook while a reading below 50 represents an overall negative outlook for the surveyed quarter.
Hong Kong Productivity Council business management director Gordon Lo said, "The impact of the strained trade relations between China and the US on Hong Kong economy has started to surface. The overall index continued to drop in this quarter with significant retraction in the US and the European markets, though the impact has been less in Asia Pacific region."
Air traders envisage air trade in both the Americas and China may slow in the coming quarter, similar to figures from the same quarter two years ago. Happily, this is offset by expectations for markets in the rest of the world, which are at a record high of 55.
Other markets experiencing a temporary downturn are in Europe, a region which has decreased from 48 points in last quarter to 39 in Q4 2018. This is largely attributable to sluggish exports in the watches, clocks and jewellery segment.
The success story for the period under consideration is the rest of the world, which saw air traders' confidence soar by 16 points, from 39 in the previous quarter to 55 in Q4 2018. This has been caused by strengthening sales volume and product variety within the region.
Hong Kong's air trade industry generates income of HK$120 billion (US$15.324 billion) annually and employs 25,000 people in the territory.