Projections for 2020 a year ago were mainly focused on IMO2020 and the shy advance of digitalization… little did we all know that the pandemic would hit and turn the world upside-down. However, despite the disruption in the supply chain caused by lockdowns and other side effects of the coronavirus, the overall outlook for 2020 remained pretty much the same in terms of megatrends.

How these megatrends coexist with the current disruption is material for deep analysis. Precisely, Nils Haupt, Senior Director Corporate Communications at Hapag-Lloyd AG, accompanied speakers Rolf Habben Jansen, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), in conversation with Lars Jensen, leading expert in the container shipping industry and Tim Scharwarth, CEO DHL discussing the lessons and expectations of logistics in times of pandemic during the live streaming of the webinar “Logistics during a global pandemic – What we’ve learned, what needs to change." 

Effects of unexpected volatility

The Chinese New Year 2020 was the last remnant of ‘normalcy’ in maritime trade, and right after that Europe entered extended periods of quarantine that lasted for the better months of H1. “A lot of consumer spends shifted from services to products, and we see that in the flow of goods and commodities such as furniture, fitness equipment, entertainment, home improvement. It is all about exports from Asia and all signals indicate that this will continue for a while; but it’s anybody’s guess for how long,” says the Hapag-Lloyd CEO. “In my memory, I cannot find a year as volatile as has been 2020. It has been kind of like a ‘train wreck in slow motion’,” adds Lars Jensen, who highlights that looking towards 2021, “resilience is the name of the game.”

Diversifying risk

Controlling the volatility is almost rhetorical. But what can be done is prepare for it and the best way to do that is diversifying risk and having more than one major supplier/provider of cargo. “In order for supply chains to become more resilient it is key to diversify risk and that means more regionalization,” says Habben Jansen.

More boxes is also an important matter looking forward to avoid falling into the container shortage experienced recently. “For the time being, all capacity is being deployed, but we will see some ‘sliding’ sailings rather than blankings, especially in Q1,” says Habben Jansen.

New normal

The question we have all been asking is what is the new normal? And when will it come around? For DHL’s Tim Scharwarth, the new normal will be operating under a bit more predictability, “which could lead to more stable ocean freight in Q2.” “This will be resolved, and the underline long-time trend will remain the same,” says Lars Jensen.